India's demographic dividend

Nowadays no meeting on India seems complete without a reference to the coming "demographic dividend".

What really is this demographic dividend?

The basic idea is straightforward enough.

In the year 2004 India had a population of 1,080 million, of whom 672 million people were in the age-group 15 to 64 years.

This is usually treated as the "working age population".

Since outside of this age group very few people work, it is reasonable to think of the remainder, that is, 408 million people, as the "dependent population".

A nation's "dependency ratio" is the ratio of the dependent population to the working-age population. In the case of India this turns out to be 0.6.

On this score India does not look too different from many other developing countries. Bangladesh's dependency ratio is 0.7, Pakistan's 0.8, Brazil's 0.5.

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What is different about India is the prediction that it will see a sharp decline in this ratio over the next 30 years or so. This is what constitutes the demographic dividend for India.

India's fertility rate - that is, the average number of children a woman expects to have in her life time - used to be 3.8 in 1990.

This has fallen to 2.9 and is expected to fall further. Since women had high fertility earlier we now have a sizeable number of people in the age-group 0-15 years.

Benefits of demography

But since fertility is falling, some 10 or 15 years down the road, this bulge of young people would have moved into the working-age category. And, since, at that time, the relative number of children will be small (thanks to the lowered fertility), India's dependency ratio would be lower.

It is expected that, in 2020, the average age of an Indian will be 29 years, compared to 37 for China and 48 for Japan; and, by 2030, India's dependency ratio should be just over 0.4.

This can confer many benefits.

First is the direct benefit of there being a rise in the relative number of bread-winners.

Moreover, with fewer children being born, more women will now join the work force; so this can give a further fillip to the bread-winner ratio.

A more indirect but vital benefit for the economy is the effect this can have on savings.

More women can work with fewer children being born

Human beings save most during the working years of their lives. When they are children, they clearly consume more than they earn, and the situation is the same during old age.

Hence, a decline in the nation's dependency ratio is usually associated with a rise in the average savings rate.

India's savings rate as a percentage of GDP has been rising since 2003. It now stands at 33% which is comparable to the Asian super-performers, all of whom save at above 30%, with China saving at an astonishing near 40% rate.

This savings growth is driven by improvements in the government's fiscal health and a sharp rise in corporate savings.

But even if these factors disappear, the decline in the dependency ratio should enable India to hold its savings and investment rate above the 30% mark for the next 25 years.

Striking example

This theory of demographic advantage has been challenged by some as just that - theory.

One way of evaluating this in reality is to look at the actual experience of other nations.

The most striking example of economic growth being spurred by demography is the case of Ireland.

Ireland's legalisation of contraception in 1979 caused a decline in the birth rate, from 22 (per 1000 population) in 1980 to 13 in 1994. This caused a rapid decline in the dependency ratio.

The phenomenal economic boom in Ireland thereafter, earning it the sobriquet "Celtic Tiger", is very likely founded in this fertility decline. (I am disinclined to concede ground to the competing view that it was caused by Pope John Paul II's visit to Ireland in 1979).

India's fertility rate has fallen

One has seen a similar sequence of changes in demographics and the economy in Japan in the 1950s and China in the 1980s.

But even if this happened in some places, will it happen in India?

My expectation is that India will get benefit from higher savings and investment rates and this will continue to fire India's high growth rate.

Beyond that much will depend on how the nation performs on primary and secondary education (to make sure that the larger working-age population conferred by the demographic dividend are an educated lot) and the manufacturing sector (which is needed to create job opportunities for the larger labour force).

What is important to remember is that the demographic dividend is a population bulge in the working-age category.

Like a kill in a python's stomach it will eventually move up, causing a rise in the old-age dependency ratio some three to four decades from now. That is, every demographic dividend comes with an accompanying "demographic echo".

It is in the nation's interest to reap as much as possible from the dividend so that it is robust enough not stymied later by the echo.

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IAF to launch its satellite to gather information: Air Chief

The first Indian Air Force (IAF) controlled satellite to gather navigational information will be launched in July 2009.
Air Chief Marshal F H Major who, described the proposed satellite as "the IAF eye in the skies", today said that it would basically be used to gather navigational information which would help IAF positioning.
The Air Chief who was interacting with reporters on the sidelines of a function at Pune University, said similar satellites of almost all major countries are already operating to collect necessary data.
Major, who delivered the annual Gen B C Joshi memorial lecture at the university, said, "Our plans for future expansion have made it inevitable that we would have to utilise the realm of space."
He said, "While I am not a die-hard proponent of weaponisation of space, I am convinced that harnessing the capabilities that space provides, creates a force multiplier effect and increases effectiveness of our operations manifold."
Noting that India has a well developed Space programme, the Air Chief said it was his intention to harness the capability that space based assets provide and put in place structures and mechanisms to exploit enhanced capability.

ISRO Bhuvan - an Indian version of Google Earth

Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) is in a new avatar now! This time, it is Bhuvan - an Indian version of ‘Google Earth‘, with which they want to take India into a new height. ISRO’s entrance into the software development field has added a new dimension in the world IT segment.

Bhuvan, a new eye of ISRO and a satellite mapping tool, is at the final stages of development and is based on the Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) technology. The portal, which is likely to be made operational by mid 2009, will provide powerful and effective images similar to the Google’s ‘Google Earth‘ or Wikimapia. Following Bhuvan, ISRO has also plan to unwrap “Bhu Sampada”, another satellite based Desi IRS information portal.
Bhuvan, which means Earth, will be more efficient and user-friendly than the Google Earth, said ISRO. Space Applications Center (SAC) of ISRO is now seriously engaged in designing and enhancing features of Bhuvan, which will be upgraded annually in place of Google Earth’s four-year upgrade schedule. Bhuvan, the Desi Google Earth, will be able to give you details up to 10 metres, whereas Google’s and Wikimapia’s efficiencies are up to 200 metres and 50 metres respectively.
Disclosing first about the projects, Dr G Madhavan Nair, chairman, ISRO said on Tuesday last at the Indian National Cartographic Association (INCA) International Congress in Gandhinagar, “Bhuvan will use the data recorded by the Indian satellites only. The prototype of Bhuvan will be ready by the end of November and ISRO is hoping to officially launch the service by March next”. The portal will be dedicated to the Indian sub-continent only, and “With Bhuvan we will be able to produce very local information which will be specific to only to our own country. This information available from this mapping system will be useful in addressing very local problems like floods, famines, infrastructure development, education and much more,” Nair said.
According to Mr. Nair, “The information on Bhuvan will be layer wise and the options of viewing filtered information will be available. Inputs from a lot of local players, like farmers, fishermen and likes who know the local area in and out, will also being integrated in Bhuvan. This is for the primary reason to make it of more use to the general public”. He was giving a lecture on the “Benefits of Space to the Society”.

Indian satellite orbiting Moon

Lunar capture (LC) has been achieved; now for a closer orbit India is celebrating the arrival of its Chandrayaan 1 spacecraft at the Moon. An 817-second burn from the probe's engine on Saturday slowed Chandrayaan sufficiently for it to be captured by the lunar body's gravity. The craft is now in an 11-hour polar ellipse that goes out to 7,502km from the Moon and comes as close as 504km. Further brakings will bring the Indian satellite down to a near-circular, 100km orbit from where it can begin its two-year mapping mission. Launched on 22 October, Chandrayaan is India's first satellite to break away from the Earth's gravitational field and reach the lunar body. The mission will compile a 3D atlas of the lunar surface and map the distribution of elements and minerals. Powered by a single solar panel generating about 700 Watts, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) probe carries five Indian-built instruments and six constructed in other countries, including the US, Britain and Germany. The Indian experiments include a 30kg probe that will be released from the mothership to slam into the lunar surface. The Moon Impact Probe (MIP) will record video footage on the way down and measure the composition of the Moon's tenuous atmosphere. It will also drop the Indian flag on the surface of the Moon.

Shameless Chinese finger raised over Indian Moon Mission

Despite huge unilateral friendly behavior shown by Indian political lobby in form of frequent visits it seems that Dragon has not dropped its contempt view of Tiger. Lately, as US has drawn near to India the Chinese have not even left the cheapest possible way to tarnish Indian image.
It has been reported that Chinese Nationalist media has declared Indian Chandrayana Mission as sham and is trying its best to spread the falsified report as wild fire through numerous blogs and sites. Also they have added into their vicious reasons the inability of India to curb human rights violations and poverty. It would better for these chinkies(Chinese) to first check their own closet. A country which shamelessly and brutally murdered its thousands of peaceful student protestors and wreaked havoc on Tibetans has no right to doubt integrity of other country.

NASA scientists want ISRO jobs

Several NASA scientists - of Indian origin as well as foreigners - are knocking the door of Indian Space Research Organisation looking for opportunities to work in future 'desi' space missions following the success of Chandrayaan-I launch, a senior ISRO official said on Saturday.Project Director of Chandrayaan-1, India's first unmanned lunar mission, Mayilsamy Annadurai says he definitely sees a "small trend" of what he calls "reverse brain-drain"."Some of my friends and juniors working there (NASA) are looking for opportunities for working in ISRO," Annadurai said.He said at least half-a-dozen of them had approached him seeking openings in the Indian space agency and he knew that "a good number of foreigners" were also looking for such jobs."Other senior ISRO officials sure would have got similar calls," he said. The question they are all asking is: "Is there any opportunity for working in future missions of ISRO".India's Chandrayaan-I, launched on October 22, is carrying 11 payloads (scientific instruments) - two from NASA, three from European Space Agency, one from Bulgaria and five from India."Fifty per cent of the instruments have come from outside. It's symbolic. Instead of we going there, they have come along with us as co-passengers," Annadurai said.ISRO Chairman G Madhavan Nair said, "Comments and observations with envy that have come from overseas after Chandrayaan-I's launch reaffirms ISRO's matured and advanced technologies."After the launch, US Democratic presidential nominee Barak Obama had said India's mission should be a wake-up call to America, and should remind his nation that it was getting complacent or sloppy about maintaining its position as the foremost nation in space exploration.

Chandrayaan-1 Camera Tested Successfully......

The Terrain Mapping camera (TMC) on board Chandrayaan-1 spacecraft was successfully operated on October 29, 2008 through a series of commands issued from the Spacecraft Control Centre of ISRO Telemetry, Tracking and Command Network (ISTRAC) at Bangalore. Analysis of the first imagery received by the Indian Deep Space Network (IDSN) at Byalalu and later processed by Indian Space Science Data Centre (ISSDC) confirms excellent performance of the camera.The first imagery (image 1) taken at 8:00 am IST from a height of 9,000 km shows the Northern coast of Australia while the other (image 2) taken at 12:30 pm from a height of 70,000 km shows Australia’s Southern Coast.
TMC is one of the eleven scientific instruments (payloads) of Chandrayaan-1. The camera can take black and white pictures of an object by recording the visible light reflected from it. The instrument has a resolution of about 5 metres.
Besides TMC, the other four Indian payloads of Chandrayaan-1 are the Hyper spectral Imager (HySI), Lunar Laser Ranging Instrument (LLRI), High Energy X-ray Spectrometer (HEX) and the Moon Impact Probe (MIP). The other six payloads of Chandrayaan-1 are from abroad.
It may be recalled that the 1380 kg Chandrayaan-1 was successfully launched into an initial elliptical orbit around the Earth by PSLV-C11 on October 22, 2008. This was followed by four orbit raising manoeuvres, which together raised Chandrayaan-1’s orbit to a much higher altitude. The spacecraft is now circling the Earth in an orbit whose apogee (farthest point to Earth) lies at 267,000 km (Two lakh sixty seven thousand km) and perigee (nearest point to Earth) at 465 km. In this orbit, Chandrayaan-1 takes about six days to go round the Earth once. The spacecraft performance is being continuously monitored and is normal.